Analysing Monthly Return Patterns: A Literature Review Study of Seasonal Trends in the Indian Stock Market Using Nifty 50

This study explores the presence of seasonal patterns—also known as calendar anomalies—in the Indian stock market. Using findings from various researchers, it examines whether specific months or days consistently show higher or lower returns. The analysis focuses on well-known indices such as Nifty 50, Sensex, BSE 500, Midcap, and SmallCap over different time periods from 1990 to 2021. Key findings show that while some months like February, November, and April have offered better returns during certain years, these patterns are not consistent over time. Notably, the popular January effect seen in Western markets is mostly absent in India. The study also looks into the weekend effect but finds little or no clear advantage in trading on specific weekdays. Seasonal effects seem to be more noticeable in small-cap stocks than in large-cap ones. These anomalies suggest that the Indian stock market is not perfectly efficient, meaning that careful investors might benefit by paying attention to these patterns. However, because these trends are not always reliable, the study advises caution and recommends combining seasonal analysis with broader market research.