A method is proposed for calculating the output parameters of an agricultural crop in a digital twin of plant crops depending on weather conditions and resource constraints of the environment. The method is based on a model of "tubes" of input and output parameters of plant growth and development stages - ranges of values of the main environmental factors for each plant variety that are important for plant survival. These ranges are conventionally divided into three categories: optimal, in which the plant demonstrates the best development indicators; recommended, ensuring stable growth without significant stress; and critical, beyond which irreversible disturbances in the physiological processes of the plant are possible, including its death. The proposed calculation method based on the available data on weather conditions and available resources makes it possible to link the input and output parameters of the current stage and transfer the obtained results for calculating the next stage in order to build a final piecewise linear plan for plant growth and development and to forecast the yield and other plant parameters. The experiment provides an example of the proposed method for the agricultural crop "Winter wheat" under the actual scenario and alternative climate scenarios that model changes in weather conditions, and a comparison of the results of these scenarios with the values under actual conditions. The modeling results made it possible to estimate the sensitivity of the yield and plant height of winter wheat to various weather deviations. An assessment is made of the discrepancies identified for various scenarios, the results obtained are discussed, conclusions are formulated regarding the applicability of the proposed method for practical use in agricultural modeling, and directions for further research and development are presented.
Skobelev et al. (Fri,) studied this question.
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