In the context of global climate change and growing food security challenges, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of the yields of three staple crops (wheat, corn and rice) in the Yellow River Basin of China, employing multiple quantitative analysis methods including the Mann–Kendall trend test, center of gravity transfer model and hotspot analysis. Our research integrates yield data covering these three crops from 72 prefecture-level cities across the Yellow River Basin, during 2000 to 2023, to systematically examine the temporal variation, spatial variation and spatial agglomeration characteristics of the yields. The study uses GeoDetector to explore the impacts of natural and socioeconomic factors on changes in crop yields from both single-factor and interactive-factor perspectives. While traditional statistical methods often struggle to simultaneously handle complex causal relationships among multiple factors, particularly in effectively distinguishing between direct and indirect influence paths or accounting for the transmission effects of factors through mediating variables, this study adopts Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to identify which factors directly affect crop yields and which exert indirect effects through other factors. This approach enables us to elucidate the path relationships and underlying mechanisms governing crop yields, thereby revealing the direct and indirect influences among multiple factors. This study conducted an analysis using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), classifying the intensity of influence based on the absolute value of the impact factor (with >0.3 defined as “strong”, 0.1–0.3 as “moderate” and <0.1 as “weak”), and distinguishing the nature of influence by the positive or negative value (positive values indicate promotion, negative values indicate inhibition). The results show that among natural factors, temperature has a moderate promoting effect on wheat (0.21) and a moderate inhibiting effect on corn (−0.25); precipitation has a moderate inhibiting effect on wheat (−0.28) and a moderate promoting effect on rice (0.17); DEM has a strong inhibiting effect on wheat (−0.33) and corn (−0.58), and a strong promoting effect on rice (0.38); slope has a moderate inhibiting effect on wheat (−0.15) and a moderate promoting effect on corn (0.15). Among socioeconomic factors, GDP has a weak promoting effect on wheat (0.01) and a moderate inhibiting effect on rice (−0.20), while the impact of population is relatively small. In terms of indirect effects, slope indirectly inhibits wheat (−0.051, weak) and promotes corn (0.149, moderate) through its influence on temperature; DEM indirectly promotes rice (0.236, moderate) through its influence on GDP and precipitation. In terms of interaction effects, the synergy between precipitation and temperature has the highest explanatory power for wheat and rice, while the synergy between DEM and precipitation has the strongest explanatory power for corn. The study further analyzes the mechanisms of direct and indirect interactions among various factors and finds that there are significant temporal and spatial differences in crop yields in the Yellow River Basin, with natural factors playing a leading role and socioeconomic factors showing dynamic regulatory effects. These findings provide valuable insights for sustainable agricultural development and food security policy-making in the region.
Xu et al. (Sat,) studied this question.
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