Strategic Competition and Illiberal State Capture in Georgia - A Win for Moscow

Today’s strategic competition between the West, Russia, and China--and particularly between the West and Russia in Europe--has increased feelings of insecurity and despair among Georgians, sentiments that the ruling Georgian Dream party has exploited for political gain. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Georgian Dream party has further strengthened its ties with Moscow and intensified its use of anti-Western, nativist rhetoric. Despite Georgia’s strong pro-Western stance following the Rose Revolution of 2003 and Russia’s 2008 invasion, the Georgian Dream’s gradual capture of vital state institutions has created a permissive environment for authoritarianism to proliferate. The leadership of Bidzina Ivanishvili, the party’s honorary chairman and most influential political figure, has hindered the country’s Euro-Atlantic integration prospects. In today’s strategic competition between liberal democracies and autocratic regimes, Russia appears to have gained an edge in Georgia. The domestic and regional consequences of growing Russian influence include rising corruption, coercion, illiberalism, underdevelopment, and a retreat from Euro-Atlantic integration. Using a case study methodology, this article examines the consequences of illiberal state capture in Georgia for the country’s future and the broader implications of increasing Russian influence in the region.