From Depth to Liability: Rethinking Pakistan’s Taliban Policy in the Post-2021 Geopolitical Order

This study looks at Pakistan’s thirty-year relationship with the Afghan Taliban and how that relationship changed after the Taliban returned to power in 2021. It explores how Pakistan’s long-term plan to use the Taliban as a tool for influence in Afghanistan, known as the “strategic depth” policy, has broken down over time. Drawing from ideas from political history and the concept of blowback, the study explains why things did not go as planned. Based on policy documents, conflict data, and expert reports, it shows that the Taliban have taken a different path. They now reject the Durand Line as a border, welcome fighters from the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and have built stronger ties with Iran and China. These actions have weakened Pakistan’s control and caused security problems along its western border. This study points to three possible reasons for this failure: Pakistan lost its influence over the Taliban, their goals no longer align, and leaders wrongly believed the relationship would remain stable through the years. While focused on Pakistan, the findings are useful for other countries that depend on armed groups to protect their interests. This study calls for a serious rethinking of Pakistan’s national security approach in a region that is quickly changing.