Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from China’s Freshwater Aquaculture Industry Based on the LMDI and Tapio Decoupling Models

Carbon emissions from freshwater aquaculture can exacerbate the greenhouse effect, thereby impacting human life and health. Consequently, it is of great significance to explore the carbon peak process and the role of emission reduction data in China’s freshwater aquaculture industry. This study innovatively employs the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model (LMDI) and the Tapio decoupling model to conduct an in-depth analysis of the relationship between carbon emissions and output values in the freshwater aquaculture industry, accurately identifying the main driving factors. Meanwhile, the global and local Moran’s I indices are introduced to analyze its spatial correlation from a new perspective. The results indicate that from 2013 to 2023, carbon emissions from China’s freshwater aquaculture industry exhibited a quasi-“N”-shaped trend, reaching a peak of 38 million tons in 2015. East China was the primary contributor to carbon emissions, accounting for 46%, while South China, Central China, and Northeast China each had an average annual share of around 14%, with Southwest, North China, and Northwest China contributing relatively small proportions. The global Moran’s I index showed a decreasing trend, with a p-value ≤ 0.0010 and a z-score > 3.3, indicating a 99% significant spatial correlation. High-high clusters were concentrated in some provinces of East China, while low-low clusters were found in Northwest, North, and Southwest China. The level of fishery economic development positively drove carbon emissions, whereas freshwater aquaculture production efficiency, industrial structure, and the scale of the aquaculture population had negative effects on carbon emissions. During the study period, carbon emissions exhibited three states: weak decoupling, strong decoupling, and expansive negative decoupling, with alternating strong and weak decoupling occurring after 2015.