It is now more crucial than ever to comprehend the factors that contribute to long-term growth and economic recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Across three global economy categories—advanced, emerging, and Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs)—this study examines the correlation between real GDP growth and five key macroeconomic indicators: investment, inflation, export volume, government spending, and total external debt. The study uses correlation analysis to find patterns of association between each indicator and real GDP growth within the designated country groups using cross-country macroeconomic data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the 2019–2024 period. The study is supported by a comparative framework and previous empirical findings in growth theory, especially those that highlight trade openness, capital accumulation, inflation control, and fiscal restraint. A clear, albeit non-causal, indicator of the direction and strength of linear relationships is provided by the study’s statistical tool, Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r). Microsoft Excel was used to process and analyze the data. IMF classifications were used to group countries, and each group was evaluated independently to account for structural and developmental variations in macroeconomic responses. Important conclusions highlight the crucial role of international trade and integration by showing that export volume has the strongest and most reliable positive correlation with GDP growth, especially in advanced economies (r = +0.98). In emerging economies, investment exhibits the strongest correlation (r = +0.65), underscoring its importance in capital formation and industrial growth during phases of transitional development. In contrast, Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) economies exhibit negative correlations between inflation and external debt, with external debt displaying a large negative relationship (r = –0.69), indicating vulnerabilities associated with debt overhang and inadequate monetary control. It’s interesting to note that government spending and GDP growth are weakly or negatively correlated across all three economic groups. This suggests that public spending may not effectively translate into productive outcomes unless it is managed transparently and efficiently. The comparative character of the analysis shows that although some indicators, such as investment and exports, generally contribute to growth, their effects differ according to economic maturity, governance, and institutional quality. The reviewed literature supports these trends. Studies by Barro, Fischer, Sala-i-Martin, and others empirically support the observed relationships. For example, the beneficial impact of investment is consistent with Solow’s model, whereas Fischer’s findings are consistent with the detrimental effects of inflation in developing nations. The robust GDP-export relationship in developed economies supports the export-led growth model. The study concludes that macroeconomic policies need to be customized for the developmental stage of each nation. Particularly in developing and emerging economies, policymakers need to concentrate on keeping inflation under control, carefully controlling debt levels, and allocating public funds to high-impact areas like infrastructure and human capital. Facilitating investment and promoting exports continue to be key components of sustainable growth in all economies. For scholars, economists, and policymakers looking to create robust and situation-specific economic policies, this study provides an empirical snapshot of macroeconomic interactions during a time of global crisis and recovery.
Ashmitha et al. (Wed,) studied this question.
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