New Belgrade’s Thermal Mosaic: Investigating Climate Performance in Urban Heritage Blocks Beyond Coverage Ratios

This study investigated the nuanced influence of urban morphology on the thermal performance of nine mass housing blocks (21–26, 28–30) in New Belgrade’s Central Zone. These blocks, showcasing diverse structures, provided a robust basis for evaluating the design parameters. ENVI-met simulations were used to assess two scenarios: an “asphalt-only” environment, isolating the urban structure’s impact, and a “real-world” scenario, including green infrastructure (GI). Overall, the findings emphasize that while GI offers mitigation, the inherent urban built structure fundamentally determines thermal outcomes. An urban block’s thermal performance, it turns out, is a complex interplay between morphological factors and local climate. Crucially, simple metrics like Green Area Percentage (GAP) and Building Coverage Ratio (BCR) proved unreliable predictors of thermal performance. This highlights the critical need for urban planning regulations to evolve beyond basic surface indicators and embrace sophisticated, context-sensitive design principles for effective heat mitigation. Optimal performance arises from morphologies that actively manage heat accumulation and facilitate its dissipation, a characteristic exemplified by Block 22’s integrated design. However, even the best-performing Block 22 remains warmer compared to denser central areas, suggesting that urban densification can be a strategy for heat mitigation. Given New Belgrade’s blocks are protected heritage, targeted GI reinforcements remain the only viable approach for improving the outdoor thermal comfort.