A Scenario-Based Approach to the Legal Regulation of Migration Policy: Shaping a Security Environment in Ukraine During Wartime

This article focuses on developing scientifically grounded approaches to enhance Ukraine's migration policy framework, fostering a secure environment, and supporting national recovery. The primary aim is to construct scenario-based projections of the EU migration crisis caused by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.To achieve this, a multi-stage research design was applied, centered on scenario analysis using the Shell matrix approach. The first stage analyzed migration flows triggered by the invasion, examining their scale, trajectory, and implications for both Ukraine and the EU. It also explored migrants’ return intentions and the emotional and socio-economic factors influencing them.The second stage identified key drivers of migration since the onset of the war and used these findings to build a matrix model of influencing factors. The third stage addressed critical uncertainties—unpredictable but pivotal elements shaping Ukraine’s security landscape—forming a basis for scenario planning.In the fourth stage, three core migration scenarios were developed—optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic—mapped along two axes: the war's duration/outcome and the EU's integration stance toward Ukraine. The fifth stage involved expert evaluation of each scenario's feasibility and the level of consensus regarding its plausibility.The final stage led to the formulation of a conceptual legal framework through the proposed "Soft Return" state program. This program introduces legal tools for integrating migration policy into Ukraine's national security agenda, with a focus on facilitating the return of human capital. It includes provisions for legislative support, diaspora engagement mechanisms, and instruments for remote civic and economic participation, such as e-residency and digital platforms.By aligning legal reform with strategic foresight, the study presents a forward-looking model for migration governance under wartime conditions.