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September 27, 2025Open Access

Detection Prospects for AGNs with the Cherenkov Telescope Array

Key Points

The variability-based strategy improved prediction metrics for AGNs by expanding the sample size significantly.
Using normalized excess variance from Fermi-LAT data, 3-day variability estimates increased AGN sample from 87 to 407.
This innovative approach identifies flaring AGNs that may enhance the scientific output of the Cherenkov Telescope Array.
Results contribute to the ongoing extragalactic science program within the CTAO collaboration.

Abstract

The Cherenkov Telescope Array Observatory (CTAO) will enable detailed studies of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) in the very-high-energy (VHE) regime, as the next-generation ground-based gamma-ray observatory, designed to enhance sensitivity and energy coverage (20 GeV - 300 TeV) over current Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes (IACTs). In the context of the CTAO Science Collaboration, within the AGN Population working group, we developed a variability-based strategy to improve predictions of AGNs detectable by CTAO, using Fermi-LAT data and normalized excess variance (NXS) as a tracer of flux variability. By extrapolating from 30-day to 3-day timescales, we expanded the sample of sources with short-timescale variability estimates from 87 to 407. This approach allows us to identify flaring and distant AGNs that are promising CTAO targets. The results are being used to support the CTAO extragalactic science program and will be included in an upcoming Consortium publication for the AGN Population collaboration.

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