Risk Dynamics and Performance of Geothermal Drilling Projects in Menengai, Nakuru County, Kenya.

Operational risks play a pivotal role in determining the success or failure of drilling projects, both globally and in Kenya, due to the complexity, high costs, and safety-critical nature of these ventures. These risks encompass equipment failures, geological challenges, human error, supply chain disruptions, regulatory non-compliance, and environmental hazards. However, there is a lack of comprehensive research that specifically examines how operational risks, such as technical challenges, environmental and safety issues, human resource limitations, and logistical issues, affect geothermal drilling project outcomes in Kenya, especially in the Menengai Geothermal field in Nakuru County, Kenya. Therefore, the general objective of this study was to establish the influence of operations risk factors on geothermal drilling project success in Menengai Geothermal Field in Nakuru County. It specifically seeks to determine the influence of; technical risks, environment and safety risks, logistics risks, and human resource risks on Geothermal Drilling Project Success in Menengai Geothermal Field. This study was anchored on two principal theoretical foundations: Risk Management Theory and Project Success Theory. The research employed a convergent parallel mixed-methods design, where both qualitative and quantitative data were collected comprises concurrently, analyzed separately, and then merged during interpretation. The target population stakeholders involved in geothermal drilling at Menengai Geothermal fields. These included project managers, engineers, safety officers, logistics personnel, and risk managers from the Geothermal Development Company (GDC), all who total 167 in number. A sample of 116 respondents was used. For the qualitative component, purposive sampling was employed to identify approximately 17 key informants. The study employed two main instruments: a structured questionnaire for quantitative data and an interview guide for qualitative insights. Both descriptive and inferential statistical methods were used to analyse the quantitative data which were then presented in tables and discussed. Thematic content analysis was also used to analyze qualitative data. The study established that technical risks—particularly equipment failures, wellbore instability, and geological uncertainties—are significant determinants of geothermal drilling project success in the Menengai Geothermal Field. The findings also revealed that environmental and safety risks significantly influence geothermal drilling project success in the Menengai Geothermal Field, albeit with a smaller effect compared to technical, human resource, and logistical risks. The study found that logistical risks significantly influence geothermal drilling project success in the Menengai Geothermal Field, second only to technical risks. The study established that human resource risks significantly influence geothermal drilling project success in the Menengai Geothermal Field. It is recommended that geothermal drilling projects prioritize investment in advanced drilling technologies, predictive geological modeling, and preventive maintenance programs. Geothermal operators should strengthen environmental and safety management by adopting advanced gas detection technologies, enforcing strict blowout prevention measures, and enhancing training on hazard response. It is recommended that geothermal drilling projects adopt integrated logistical systems combining procurement, transport, and storage planning. The study recommends prioritizing comprehensive training programs, retention of skilled personnel, and effective shift scheduling to reduce fatigue.