Implementation Effect, Long-Term Mechanisms, and Industrial Upgrading of the Low-Carbon City Pilot Policy: An Empirical Study Based on City-Level Panel Data from China

The green, low-carbon transition is a broad and profound change. The low-carbon city pilot policy (LCCP) is one of the most important strategies in China, aimed at dealing with climate change and realizing the green, low-carbon transition. Therefore, a quantitative evaluation of the implementation effect of the pilot policy is conducive to better promoting low-carbon work in the pilot areas. Based on 283 cities in China from 2005 to 2021, this paper constructs a double-difference model to empirically test the implementation effect, long-term mechanisms, and industrial upgrading of the pilot policy. The results show that the LCCP significantly promotes high-quality economic development and employment stability. After a series of robustness and endogenic tests, the conclusions in this study are still valid. Further analysis of the findings in this paper shows that the pilot programs promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structures. The mediating effect shows that the LCCP has established three long-term mechanisms: developing alternative industries, expanding the level of openness, and promoting innovation. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the pilot policy’s implementation effect is more significant in cities located in central and western regions, as well as in non-resource-based cities. This study proposes the continuation of the promotion and implementation of the pilot policy, an increase in financial funds and policy support, the need to strengthen the labor market’s adaptability and protection mechanisms, the adaptation to local conditions to promote policy implementation, and the need to step up efforts to publicize pilot policies.