Dynamics of the polycrisis: temporal trends, spatial distribution and interconnections of national shocks (1970-2019)

Polycrisis has emerged as a new property of the Anthropocene, driven by the co-interaction of multiple shocks and stressors. Although sector-specific studies offer insights into the changing frequency and intensity of these disruptions, a holistic, cross-sectoral analysis remains absent, limiting a more integrated understanding of the phenomenon. To fill this gap, we have compiled a database that contains the number of shocks (climatic, geophysical, ecological, economic, technological, conflict) covering 175 countries from 1970 to 2019. We provide evidence that, even if China, India, Indonesia, Philippines and the U.S. have experienced more shocks relative to other countries, shocks have not evolved uniformly over time on a global or regional scale. Our results show that shocks became progressively interconnected between 1970 and 2000, particularly around the Conflict-Technology-Climate nexus, before showing a regionally-dependent shift in behavior. This change underlines the importance of cross-sectoral and cross-national tools for disaster and crisis management, particularly for interacting risks in a context of realignment of the world order. In this respect, we urge that the emerging polycrisis research community must recognize these global and regional patterns.