Smart Grid Load Forecasting Models Using Recurrent Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory

This paper presents two methods for managing electrical energy consumption and demand, with the objective of developing reliable and accurate forecasting models for smart electrical network energy consumption and optimization. The first method utilizes a recurrent neural network (RNN), while the second employs long short-term memory (LSTM) techniques. This approach builds upon previous studies that have explored the use of machine learning models for energy forecasting, but often with limited performance or the inability to capture long-term dependencies in the data. The study utilizes the Global Energy Forecast 2012 database - for the period from 2004 to 2008, with a focus on electricity consumption - to validate the performance of the proposed models. The R-squared (R2) score is used as the primary evaluation metric, with the LSTM model achieving a remarkable 90% R2 score, outperforming the RNN model's 80% R2 score. This is a significant improvement over previous studies, which have typically reported R2 scores in the range of 70-80% for energy forecasting models. Furthermore, the LSTM model demonstrates superior error rate performance, with a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 4.345%, compared to the RNN model's 16.644% MSE. This highlights the ability of LSTM models to capture long-term dependencies in the data, which is crucial for accurate energy consumption forecasting, a limitation often observed in traditional RNN-based approaches. The findings of this study highlight the superior performance of the LSTM-based approach in accurately predicting energy consumption in smart grids, a crucial aspect for optimizing energy management and distribution. This contribution is particularly significant, as it showcases the advantages of LSTM models over traditional RNN techniques in the context of energy forecasting, providing valuable insights for researchers and practitioners in the field of smart grid optimization, where accurate forecasting is essential for efficient energy management and distribution.