A Study on the Trade Efficiency and Potential of China’s Agricultural Products Export to Association of South East Asian Nations Countries: Empirical Analysis Based on Segmented Products

This study examines the current state of China’s agricultural exports to ASEAN countries using a segmented export structure analysis via a stochastic frontier gravity model, based on panel data from 2007 to 2020. The results indicate that: (1) China’s primary agricultural exports to ASEAN countries include plant products, food and beverages, and tobacco, with animal products mainly exported to Thailand, plant products mainly exported to Vietnam, and animal and plant fats, food, beverages, and tobacco mainly exported to Malaysia. (2) The economic scale and population size of China and ASEAN countries have differing impacts on various markets, while distance significantly negatively affects the exports of animal products, plant products, food, beverages, and tobacco. Additionally, ASEAN countries’ per capita carbon emissions positively influence the exports of these product categories. (3) The liner shipping connectivity index is significantly negatively correlated with trade inefficiency. The influences of financial freedom, trade freedom, investment freedom, and government expenditure on trade inefficiency vary across ASEAN countries. (4) China’s export efficiency for animal products, plant products, food, beverages, and tobacco has increased rapidly to Thailand and Vietnam, with Malaysia and Singapore showing high export efficiency, while that to Cambodia lags. (5) China exhibits significant export potential to Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam, with substantial expansion opportunities in Indonesia. Moreover, China’s export potential and opportunities in Cambodia are steadily increasing.