‘Local Hubs and Global Gateways’: Understanding the impact of Singapore’s master plan on urban polycentricity

Master plans are pivotal in strategising urban development, dictating land use, building height, and development intensity. These plans influence the spatial arrangement of urban infrastructure and activities, shaping the morphological and dynamic urban spatial structure. This study evaluates Singapore’s master plan’s effect on urban spatial structure, utilising data extracted from the master plan to project future land use and spatial interaction scenarios. By simulating the changing commercial floor space in different urban centres and its impact on commuting patterns, we evaluate the master plan’s impact on urban spatial structure and promoting polycentric urban development. Singapore’s master plan, with a clear vision towards polycentricity through the ‘Local hubs and global gateways’ strategy, is examined for its impact on urban spatial structure. The study uses urban mobility data and spatial network analysis to reveal how the master plan aims to decentralise development from the Central Business District (CBD) and distribute economic activities across various regions. Our findings indicate that regional centres and local hubs are becoming more autonomous while the CBD remains dominant. The results also highlight the importance of integrating morphological and functional polycentricity measurements and socioeconomic indicators to comprehensively evaluate urban development strategies. This study contributes to understanding urban spatial structure and offers practical insights for future urban planning.