Understanding Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Salinization of Low‐Lying Coastal Groundwater Systems

Abstract Fresh coastal groundwater is a valuable water resource of global significance, but its quality is threatened by saltwater intrusion. Excessive groundwater abstraction, sea‐level rise (SLR), land subsidence and other climate‐related factors are expected to accelerate this process in the future. The objective of this study is to (a) quantify the impact of projected climate change and (b) explore the role of individual hydrogeological boundaries on groundwater salinization of low‐lying coastal groundwater systems until 2100 CE. We employ numerical density‐dependent groundwater flow and salt transport modeling for this purpose, using Northwestern Germany as a case. Separate model variants are constructed and forced with climate data, that is, projected SLR and groundwater recharge, as well as likely ranges of other hydrogeological boundaries, including land subsidence, abstraction rates and drain levels. We find that autonomous salinization in the marsh areas, resulting from non‐equilibrium of the present‐day groundwater salinity distribution with current boundary conditions, is responsible for >50% of the salinization increase until 2100 CE. Sea‐level rise, land subsidence and drain levels are the other major factors controlling salinization. We further show that salinization of the water resources is a potential threat to coastal water users, including water suppliers and the agrarian sector, as well as coastal ecosystems. Regional‐scale uplifting of drain levels is identified as an efficient measure to mitigate salinization of deep and shallow groundwater in the future. The presented modeling approach highlights the consequences of climate change and anthropogenic impacts for coastal salinization, supporting the timely development of mitigation strategies.