Modeling the Impact of Groundwater Pumping on Karst Geotechnical Risks in Sete Lagoas (MG), Brazil

Karst terrains can undergo geotechnical issues like subsidence and collapse, occurring both naturally and anthropogenically. The municipality of Sete Lagoas, in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, is notable for overexploiting a karst aquifer, resulting in adverse effects such as drying lakes and geotechnical problems. This study aims to assess the progression of geotechnical risk areas in the central urban area from 1940 to 2020 and simulate future scenarios until 2100. To achieve this, historical hydraulic head data, a three-dimensional geological model, and a karst geotechnical risk matrix were used to develop a calibrated FEFLOW numerical model. Results show that before the installation of the first pumping well in 1942, the natural groundwater flow direction was primarily northeast. However, in the 1980s, a cone of depression emerged in the city, creating a zone of influence (ZOI) with a surface area of around 30 km2. Between 1940 and 2020, twenty geotechnical collapse events occurred in defined risk zones, often in regions where limestone outcrops or is mantled in association with the ZOI. In future scenarios, if the 2020 total annual groundwater pumping rate (Q = 145,000 m3/d) remains constant until 2100, the geotechnical risk zones will continue expanding laterally. To establish a sustainable risk state, a 40% decrease in the pumping rate (Q = 85,500 m3/d) is necessary.