Evaluating the effects of changes in land use and assessing the value of ecosystem services in the Cisadane Watershed, Banten Province, Indonesia

Analyzing ecosystem service values (ESV) is crucial for achieving sustainable development. The main objective of this study was to assess the ecosystem services of the Cisadane watershed in Indonesia, with specific goals: (i) examining the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESV using multi-year land use and land cover (LULC) data from 2000 to 2021, (ii) exploring trade-offs and synergies among various ecosystem services, and (iii) investigating the sensitivity of ESV to changes in LULC. The results unveiled a significant decrease in forested areas (21. 2%) and rice fields (10. 2%), leading to a decline in ESV of 196. 37 billion (33. 17%) from 2010 to 2021. Throughout the period from 2000 to 2021, interactions between ESV were mainly synergistic. Projected from the baseline year (2021), the decline in ESV is expected to persist, ranging from 24. 78 billion to 124. 28 million by 2030 and from 45. 78 billion to 124. 28 million by 2050. The total estimated ecosystem values exhibited an inelastic response in terms of ecosystem value coefficients. The study also emphasizes an inelastic response in total estimated ESV coefficient concerning ecosystem value coefficients. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted conservation efforts and sustainable land management practices to mitigate the further decline in ecosystem services and safeguard the long-term well-being of the Cisadane watershed and its inhabitants.