Power Peak Load Forecasting Based on Deep Time Series Analysis Method

The prediction of peak power load is a critical factor directly impacting the stability of power supply, characterized significantly by its time series nature and intricate ties to the seasonal patterns in electricity usage. Despite its crucial importance, the current landscape of power peak load forecasting remains a multifaceted challenge in the field. This study aims to contribute to this domain by proposing a method that leverages a combination of three primary models - the GRU model, self-attention mechanism, and Transformer mechanism - to forecast peak power load. To contextualize this research within the ongoing discourse, it's essential to consider the evolving methodologies and advancements in power peak load forecasting. By delving into additional references addressing the complexities and current state of the power peak load forecasting problem, this study aims to build upon the existing knowledge base and offer insights into contemporary challenges and strategies adopted within the field. Data preprocessing in this study involves comprehensive cleaning, standardization, and the design of relevant functions to ensure robustness in the predictive modeling process. Additionally, recognizing the necessity to capture temporal changes effectively, this research incorporates features such as "Weekly Moving Average" and "Monthly Moving Average" into the dataset. To evaluate the proposed methodologies comprehensively, this study conducts comparative analyses with established models such as LSTM, Self-attention network, Transformer, ARIMA, and SVR. The outcomes reveal that the models proposed in this study exhibit superior predictive performance compared to these established models, showcasing their effectiveness in accurately forecasting electricity consumption. The significance of this research lies in two primary contributions. Firstly, it introduces an innovative prediction method combining the GRU model, self-attention mechanism, and Transformer mechanism, aligning with the contemporary evolution of predictive modeling techniques in the field. Secondly, it introduces and emphasizes the utility of "Weekly Moving Average" and "Monthly Moving Average" methodologies, crucial in effectively capturing and interpreting seasonal variations within the dataset. By incorporating these features, this study enhances the model's ability to account for seasonal influencing factors, thereby significantly improving the accuracy of peak power load forecasting. This contribution aligns with the ongoing efforts to refine forecasting methodologies and addresses the pertinent challenges within power peak load forecasting.