A System Dynamics Model for Rooftop Solar PV System Development in Indonesia

Despite of Indonesia’s vast solar energy potential according to the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesia’s total installed capacity of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) is very far from Indonesia’s target of 3.6 GW in 2025. Indonesia once applied net metering scheme for rooftop solar PV policy and was expected to be able to boost rooftop solar PV growth. A system dynamics approach is used in the research to develop an assessment model to evaluate the policies’ impact on residential rooftop solar PV system growth. A Causal Loop Diagram was established then transformed into Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD) using software Vensim PLE 10.1.3, which was used to simulate several policies’ scenarios related to residential rooftop solar PV adoption and CO2 emissions reduction. Ten scenarios were simulated in this study involving three groups of intervention: initial net metering tariff, reduction on initial solar PV cost, upper limit of ROI, and combination of initial net metering tariff and initial solar PV cost reduction. The simulations revealed that combination of increasing net metering tariff to 80% & initial cost reduction 30% has the highest potential solar PV installations, the highest CO2 emissions reduction, and the lowest accumulation cost of net metering in 2030. This study can be used as reference by the policy makers in Indonesia to formulate the optimum policy to boost rooftop solar PV growth as the simulations shows that residential rooftop solar PV with the right intervention can meet the government’s target of rooftop solar PV in 2030.