Assessing the impact of flood risk and associated factors on profitability of fish farming operations: evidence from South- South Nigeria

Fish farming plays a crucial role in food security and economic development in Nigeria. However, the country’s susceptibility to floods due to its geographical location and climate change has raised concerns about the profitability and sustainability of fish farming operations. This study aims to assess the impact of flood risk and associated factors on the profitability and sustainability of fish farming operations in South-South, Nigeria. The research employs a purposive random sampling techniques to generate data on flood frequency and severity, associated factor affecting profitability fish farms locations in the three (3) states, and other associated factors affecting profitability of fish farmers, their production figures are collected and analyzed to identify areas prone to flooding and the extent of damage caused to fish farms. Additionally, two hundred and one (180) fish farmers were sampled for the study (Delta 96, Bayelsa45 and Rivers 60 fish farmers) to gather information on flood risk effects, perception and profitability during flood occurrence. Preliminary findings indicate that flood severity is statistically significant at a 5% level (t-ratio: -2.4806) with a negative coefficient (-0.4876). Flood frequency is statistically significant at a 1% level (t-ratio: -4.5934). with a negative coefficient of -3.8035. This suggests that more severe flood events are associated with lower profitability among fish farmers. The result also revealed that at a probability of 0.1%, fish farmers in Delta, Bayelsa and Rivers States were susceptible to flooding with about 92.9% experiencing flood events although at a probability of 0.2%, it was noticed that only 7.1% of fish farmers were facing flood events. The study recommends that adoption of climate- smart farming practices, such as choosing flood resistant fish species and diversifying income sources, can enhance resilience, prioritize conducting thorough risk assessments specific to each fish farming location. These assessments should consider historical flood data, local climate conditions, topography, and the vulnerability of infrastructure. These findings will inform farmers and policy makers about the level of risk and guide mitigation efforts.