Enhancing Early Lung Cancer Diagnosis: Predicting Lung Nodule Progression in Follow-Up Low-Dose CT Scan with Deep Generative Model

Early diagnosis of lung cancer can significantly improve patient outcomes. We developed a Growth Predictive model based on the Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network framework (GP-WGAN) to predict the nodule growth patterns in the follow-up LDCT scans. The GP-WGAN was trained with a training set (N = 776) containing 1121 pairs of nodule images with about 1-year intervals and deployed to an independent test set of 450 nodules on baseline LDCT scans to predict nodule images (GP-nodules) in their 1-year follow-up scans. The 450 GP-nodules were finally classified as malignant or benign by a lung cancer risk prediction (LCRP) model, achieving a test AUC of 0.827 ± 0.028, which was comparable to the AUC of 0.862 ± 0.028 achieved by the same LCRP model classifying real follow-up nodule images (p = 0.071). The net reclassification index yielded consistent outcomes (NRI = 0.04; p = 0.62). Other baseline methods, including Lung-RADS and the Brock model, achieved significantly lower performance (p < 0.05). The results demonstrated that the GP-nodules predicted by our GP-WGAN model achieved comparable performance with the nodules in the real follow-up scans for lung cancer diagnosis, indicating the potential to detect lung cancer earlier when coupled with accelerated clinical management versus the current approach of waiting until the next screening exam.