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Abstract Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on crop water demand and yield is crucial for developing effective adaptation strategies and ensuring food security. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on wheat water demand, irrigation requirements, and yield in the semi-arid Setif region of Algeria. Utilizing observed climate data (1995–2014) and the CROPWAT model, a baseline for wheat water use and potential yield reduction was established. Future projections were developed using an ensemble of 11 CMIP6 global climate models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-1.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) across four time horizons (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090). Results indicate a consistent increase in crop water requirement (CWR) across all scenarios and time horizons, primarily driven by rising temperatures. Irrigation water requirements (IWR) exhibit a more complex pattern, with increasing needs during critical growth stages, especially under high-emission scenarios. Yield reductions are projected to be highly dependent on soil type, with light soils experiencing significant losses exceeding 50% by 2090 under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The study highlights the increasing vulnerability of wheat production to water stress and the need for proactive adaptation measures, such as drought-tolerant cultivars, efficient irrigation technologies, and sustainable water management policies.
Bouregaa et al. (Thu,) studied this question.