Real-world predictors of changes in fear of COVID-19 in the Japanese general population: a large-scale internet-based cohort study with 20,712 participants

Abstract Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory infection that considerably impacts both physical and mental health. In particular, the prolonged nature of psychological issues associated with COVID-19 has become a concern. However, evidence based on longitudinal studies investigating the changes in fear of COVID-19 has been limited, posing a public health challenge. Methods We investigated the predictors of changes in the Fear of COVID-19 Scale (FCV-19S) scores in the general Japanese population using data from a large-scale internet-based cohort study. Results We included 20,712 study participants (mean age = 51.1 years, percentage of males = 49.9%). The baseline FCV-19S score for the research participants was 17.0, and one year later, the FCV-19S score decreased to 15.8. The predictors of increase in FCV-19S scores were older age, male sex, COVID-19 requiring oxygen therapy, higher baseline FCV-19S total score, severe psychological distress, never married, worsening subjective health status, a greater number of COVID-19 vaccinations, a history of alcohol dependency, and living with family members. Conversely, the predictors of decrease in FCV-19S scores included habitual alcohol intake, COVID-19 not requiring oxygen therapy and a higher household income. Our study was an internet-based survey focused on residents of Japan, which raises the possibility of selection bias and makes it unclear whether the findings can be extrapolated to other countries and cultures. Conclusion During the observation period, the FCV-19S scores significantly decreased. Severe COVID-19 requiring oxygen therapy within one year of baseline was the most impactful predictor of an increase in FCV-19S score. On the other hand, mild COVID-19 not requiring oxygen therapy was a predictor of a decrease in FCV-19S scores. Therefore, we believe that it is necessary to adopt individualized approaches stratified by the severity of the infection when addressing the fear of COVID-19.