Evaluation of flux and fate of plastic in terrestrial–aquatic–estuarine continuum by using an advanced process‐based model

Abstract Environmental contamination by plastics has been receiving considerable attention from scientists, policy makers and the public during the last few decades. Though some of the models have succeeded in simulating the transport and fate of plastic debris in freshwater systems, a complete model is now being developed to clarify the dynamic characteristics of the plastic budget on a continental scale. Recently, the author linked two process‐based eco‐hydrology models, NICE (National Integrated Catchment‐based Eco‐hydrology) and NICE‐BGC (BioGeochemical Cycle), to a plastic debris model that accounts for both the transport and fate of plastic debris (advection, dispersion, diffusion, settling, dissolution and biochemical degradation by light and temperature) and applied these models on a regional scale and also for global major rivers. The present study was newly modified to incorporate the plastic dynamics in estuaries by extending the previous studies. The model was employed to conduct a 2‐year global simulation aimed at evaluating changes in plastic dynamics in major rivers including 130 tidal estuaries. The model simulated the impact of estuaries on plastic budget and its seasonal variability caused by settling, resuspension and bedload transport during 2014–2015. The model showed that plastics with smaller particle sizes account for more in the water of estuaries than that of rivers, and plastics with larger particle sizes accumulate more on the riverbed. The simulated result also showed that estuaries trap more plastic than lakes and riverbeds (0.218 ± 0.053 Tg/year) although not as much as reservoirs (0.386 ± 0.103 Tg/year). More than 40% of plastics were retained by lakes, reservoirs, riverbeds and estuaries and the riverine plastic transport to the ocean was revised from 1.749 ± 0.371 Tg/year in the author's previous study to 1.000 ± 0.397 Tg/year in the present study. These results aid the development of solutions and measures for the reduction of plastic input to the ocean and help quantify the magnitude of plastic transport under climate change.