Unemployment, divorce, and longevity: the major factors of the fertility upward evolution in Tunisia, during 1998-2018: a dynamic panel data analysis

After a long decline, fertility in Tunisia, as in some Arab countries like Algeria and Egypt, recorded an unexpected increasing trend over the 2000 – 2018 period. To account for such demographic change, this paper re-examined the behavior of the main fertility decline factors tested by the previous empirical studies (such as education, income, mortality, and contraceptive use) to check whether they have changed in favor of an upward fertility evolution. Deepening the analysis, it introduced three new socio-economic factors that are likely to favor fertility increase: divorce, unemployment, and longevity. The dynamic one-step generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation on a cylindrical data panel from 1998 to 2018 for eight Tunisian regions confirmed the positive effect of these new variables. Additionally, the education-fertility interaction was found to be no longer obvious. The family planning program appeared to no longer play its role in limiting fertility. The income effect overcame the substitution effect in favor of a fertility increase. The observed increasing fertility trend in Tunisia seems to be more explained by the dominance of some sociocultural factors. Thus, policymakers should seek to better focus on the family institution's behavior to sustain fertility decline and improve the efficiency of its family planning program.