Chad's rapprochement with Russia may benefit Deby

Significance The visit, which forms part of a broader rapprochement between Chad and Russia, has raised fears in Paris and other Western capitals that Chadian President Mahamat Deby Itno may look to follow juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger in cutting ties with France and inviting Russian soldiers or mercenaries into the country. Impacts Russian propaganda highlighting positive relations with Chad may increase in the coming weeks. Chad will look to maintain smooth relations with Niger’s junta. Any break with France would likely be preceded by efforts to mobilise anti-French feeling. The coup risk for Deby may increase in the coming months as the fighting in El Fasher in Darfur escalates.