Vehicle choice modeling for emerging zero-emission light-duty vehicle markets in California

To predict the market dynamics of various zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) technologies, this study introduces a dynamic discrete vehicle choice model (VCM) that investigates the probabilities associated with 14 decision factors, applying these to the purchase of ZEVs from 2020 to 2040. Market share and penetration results are presented under eight scenarios, that vary by vehicle costs infrastructure development and incentive strategies. The findings suggest that in the early years, incentives alone may not generate significant market penetration of ZEVs before the infrastructure meets the basic convenience for daily use, especially for fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). However, in later years, incentives play a more important role in the market penetration of ZEVs under well-defined infrastructure networks. By 2040, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are projected to dominate the market in California. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and FCVs may experience a decline in market share due to improved charging convenience, which benefits the market penetration of BEVs. However, fuel cell plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (FC-PHEVs) could still be beneficial if accessible models are available, considering the limited availability of hydrogen refueling stations. The goal set by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) is achievable, but it requires a sustained combination of measures; no single effort can achieve it. These measures include technological improvements to reduce the cost of ZEVs, a wider range of models available for consumers to choose from based on their desired performance, the establishment of infrastructure (battery chargers and hydrogen dispensers), and attractive incentives aimed at promoting ZEV adoption. The proposed methodology can be adapted for other regions in the United States and globally by carefully examining the inputs for each decision factor at the desired scale.