Evolutionary predictive model of the space debris environment

Abstract. In recent years, the exponential growth of space debris has become evident. To mitigate debris problem, a precise model for predicting the space debris environment is necessary. This research project tackles this challenge of space debris modelling, through adopting the continuum approach. In the continuum approach a space debris cloud is treated as a fluid. As a novel aspect, the model will include a detailed uncertainty analysis. The challenge here is to find a unified approach to deal with the different uncertainty sources. The analysis will help to identify the largest uncertainty sources and will aid in developing a more precise model. To find a balance between robustness and computational time high performance computing will be employed. Furthermore, the effect of mitigation measures and newly launched missions will be investigated through the combination of historical data with economic forecasting methods, making it possible to make informed decisions for sustainable space operations.