Analysis and Forecast of the Coupling and Coordination Development Level of Socio-economic-Ecological Enviro nment-Tourism Industry in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract The Yellow River Basin holds a crucial strategic position in the national development and socialist modernization agenda, serving as a vital ecological security barrier in China. It is also a significant region for population activities and economic development. Analyzing the integrated and coordinated development of the socio-economic, ecological environment, and tourism industry in the Yellow River Basin is a major strategic task for national advancement, underscoring its importance in the broader context of national development. In the context outlined above, this study concentrates on analyzing the interconnected and coordinated development of the socio-economic, ecological environment, and tourism industry in the Yellow River Basin. This analysis is in response to strategic initiatives aimed at fostering high-quality development within the basin, aligning with China's overarching sustainable development goals and the post-pandemic revival of the tourism economy. By examining the current state of integration and coordination among these three systems in the Yellow River Basin and reviewing pertinent international literature, we have established an evaluation framework for the indicators of socio-economic, ecological, and tourism industry development. Utilizing the entropy method, we determined the weights for the indicators across the three systems and conducted an assessment based on these weights for 30 specific indicators. The analysis of the temporal and spatial coupling coordination degree in the Yellow River Basin comprehensively illustrates the stage and region-specific characteristics of this coordination within the socio-economic, ecological, environmental, and tourism sectors. Utilizing the grey prediction model to forecast the future trends of coupling coordination in the Yellow River Basin offers a robust theoretical foundation for relevant departments to devise policies that support the high-quality development of these interconnected sectors.