A Study of the Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Coupling Coordination between Ecosystem Service Values and Habitat Quality in Diverse Scenarios: The Case of Chengdu Metropolitan Area, China

The global ecological decline resulting from urban development presents a significant challenge for numerous regions striving to reconcile conservation efforts with developmental needs. This study explores the relationship between ecosystem service value (ESV) and habitat quality (HQ) under various scenarios to elucidate prospective development trajectories. This study utilized the PLUS model to simulate land use patterns in the Chengdu metropolitan area across four distinct development scenarios. Furthermore, it employed the equivalent factor method and the Invest model to quantify ESV and HQ values, and investigated the coupling coordination between ESV and HQ for each city using a coupling coordination model (CCM). The findings are as follows: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, land use in the Chengdu metropolitan area primarily expanded through the development of construction land. (2) Concurrently, ESV demonstrated a fluctuating trend characterized by an initial decline succeeded by an upsurge, culminating under the Development–Ecological Balance Scenario. Likewise, HQ displayed a similar fluctuating pattern with an initial decline succeeded by an increase, reaching its zenith under the Ecological Dominance Scenario. (3) The coupling coordination between ESV and HQ exhibited variability across cities and scenarios. Ultimately, this study offers a distinctive perspective on evaluating the interplay between urban development and conservation, providing valuable insights for promoting sustainable development in other regions.