Change in work arrangement during the COVID-19 pandemic: A large shift to remote and hybrid work

With two repeated cross-sectional datasets collected in Southern California, we investigate changes in work arrangement and commute trip generation across four timepoints before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: fall 2019 (recalled in fall 2020 retrospectively); fall 2020 and summer 2021 (reported at the moment); and summer 2022 (an expectation as of summer 2021 for a near future prospectively). Our results highlight a large shift from physical commutes to exclusively/predominantly remote work for many workers in fall 2020, followed by a transition towards hybrid work (combining in-person work and remote work) in summer 2021. The adoption of remote/hybrid work varied considerably across different types of workers and sociodemographic groups, prominently driven by high-income earners, highly educated individuals, urban residents, full-time workers, and those with white-collar, STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics), and government jobs. As the pandemic subsides, many workers have returned to physical commutes for some of their workdays, but the prevalence of remote/hybrid work is expected to endure into the future. These findings confirm oft-discussed trends and anecdotal evidence in the study region. However, the study provides rigorous quantitative evidence into reasons behind these observations and heterogeneity across groups. We also suggest forward-looking policies to promote transportation equity, reimagine transportation options, and support public transit to adapt to the evolving travel patterns in the post-pandemic society.