Impacts of projected urban growth on simulated near-surface temperature in Mexico City Metropolitan Area: Implications for urban vulnerability

Urbanization impacts the surface temperature fields increasing the vulnerability of urban residents to heat exposure. Identifying vulnerable urban populations to extreme heat exposure is crucial to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies towards sustainability. We used an urban growth model (SLEUTH) to simulate emerging urban areas in Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) under a hypothetical land-use policy scenario projected to 2060 in which no restrictions were posed to urban growth. SLEUTH outputs were used in the numerical model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) to quantify expected changes in near-surface temperature within the MCMA. We calculated and mapped heat exposure as differences in average (Tmean), maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures over the diurnal cycle between future and current land cover conditions. Population vulnerability to projected increases in heat exposure was determined using a set of socioeconomic indicators. SLEUTH simulations showed an urban area expansion of nearly 4,790 km 2 by 2060. Overall, changes in Tmin were greater than changes observed for Tmax and Tmean. Tmean, Tmax and Tmin increases up to 0.6°C, 1.3°C and 2.6°C, respectively, were recorded for the MCMA with greatest temperature changes observed in the State of Mexico. Results suggested the presence of socioeconomic disparities in the projected spatial exposure of urban-induced heat in MCMA. We argue that our results could be used to inform and guide locally tailored actions aimed at reducing exposure and increasing population´s capacities to cope and adapt to future threats.