Comparative analysis of methodological approaches to assessing accumulated external exposure doses of persons permanently residing in a contaminated area with radionuclides as a result of the Chernobyl accident for the period 1986-1989

A comparative analysis of the methods used for assessing and forecasting individual accumulated external exposure doses since the Chernobyl accident showed that conservative approaches to assessing doses and underestimation of indirect dose-forming factors have a negative influence on dose forecasting in general. The proposed new methodological approach of assessing of individualized external exposure doses is consistent with its analogues (Kendall’s concordance factor W=0,96; p<0,03), but at the same time allows taking into account not only the direct dose-forming factor (contaminated density) but also indirect factors in the aggregate (occupational employment, gender and age), which, in turn, makes it possible to reconstruct individualized external exposure doses for each year under study with minimal error. Regression analysis showed that there is a high correlation between new method’s estimates and individual dosimetric control data (R=0,875; p<0,05), the estimation error of the proposed method is ~4 times lower than previous methods.