South-east Asia may align more with China in near term

Significance A key finding is that 50.5% of respondents would pick China if forced to take sides in US-Chinese rivalry, up from 38.9% in 2023. China continues to be regarded as the most influential economic and political-strategic power in the region, although the United States is still the more trusted player. Impacts Most South-east Asian states will continue to avoid choosing between the United States and China if they can. US spotlighting of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza may help ease fear of increased jihadism in South-east Asia over the Israel-Hamas war. Washington may encounter difficulties with Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto during the early months of his administration.