Impact of Reconfiguration of the Middle East Subsystem on International Relations (Security Aspect)

This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the temporal and spatial dynamics of the Middle Eastern regional subsystem, outlining its key directions and trends. The coevolution of global and Middle Eastern regional trends is examined, emphasizing the system's potential in the post-bipolar confrontation of international relations. The study argues that the international system's evolution has unleashed the system-forming potential of regional-level international relations, strengthening autonomously in global segmentation and regional interaction development processes. It is argued that the systemic characteristics of the Middle Eastern regional system impact the global system, undergoing a triple transformation: the Westphalian state-centric world-political model, the modern international system, and the political systems of individual countries worldwide. Regional-level processes influence the formation of the future world order structure and the contours of a new global order. The Islamic alternative dual model of the world order challenges the Westphalian state-centric global order, envisioning its own construction principles. In the Middle East, a reassessment of the fundamental principles of the Westphalian state-centric world model casts doubt on the territorial settlement in the Middle East established after World War I. Manifestations of deterritorialization include the "blurring" of state sovereignty, border revisions, and the dissolution of statehood. Transnationalization is evident in "wars of a new generation" and the formation of quasi-state entities. Democratization in the Middle East is characterized by more destructive features and consequences. The "Arab Spring" led to the weakening of traditional centers of power, giving rise to a dual structure in the regional system – the Sunni "arc of moderation" and the Shia axis led by Iran. The intra-Islamic geopolitical and ideological conflict gains particular significance, transitioning from regional to global levels. The old order in the region is disappearing, and the transition to a new one is characterized by uncertainty, the strengthening role of political Islam, and a new geopolitical role for Islamic fundamentalism, coupled with unbridled transit of Islamist ideas and ongoing internal, interstate, and transnational conflicts, intensifying threats from non-state actors. Further instability is anticipated, with the possibility of redrawing existing interstate borders and the emergence of quasi-states relying on ethnic and ethno-confessional forces and supported by influential geopolitical power centers.