Simulated reproductive allocation to fisheries-induced evolution among small yellow croaker populations in the Yellow and Bohai Seas

Fishery-induced evolution (FIE) affects the body size and reproduction of offspring, resulting in feedback regulation of fish survival and stock recruitment. Small yellow croaker (Larimichthys polyactis) is a species of high ecological and commercial importance in the Yellow and Bohai Seas, with large fluctuations in abundance linked to overfishing and environmental changes in recent decades. To better understand the maturation size and age, threshold reproduction cost, and energy trade-offs of small yellow croaker under environmental changes (e.g. conditions) and human impacts (e.g. fishing) in the Yellow and Bohai Seas, we utilised a two-pool uncertain growth model containing the growth threshold of reproductive energy and reproductive energy cost. The results showed that for growth, maturation age, and reproduction under the baseline scenario based on field survey data from the 1950 s, when resources for small yellow croaker were underexploited, the average age was 5–6 years old and the average body length was approximately 220 mm. As the model parameters for fishing pressure and condition mortality increased, small yellow croaker tended to mature earlier, had a smaller body size, and allocated more energy to reproduction, resulting in higher population fecundity but shorter lifespan. Higher reproductive costs led to a greater proportion of reproductive energy being allocated during the spawning period, resulting in an older age of sexual maturity, shorter lifespan for spawning populations, and poor physical conditions, resulting in higher post-reproductive mortality and a limited capacity for stock recruitment. The key life-history traits of small yellow croaker, including maturity age, mean age of the population, age-specific body weight, and spawn production at different age stages, can change under different conditions. The model represents the main life history strategies and energy allocation characteristics of small yellow croaker. The simulated age and body size were within the observed range and the predicted fecundity aligned with the observed values. This study provides a prediction tool for protecting the spawning and recruitment of small yellow croaker and establishes a biological reference for sustainable management of small yellow croaker populations in the Yellow and Bohai Seas in the future.