A Synthesis on Impact Assessment Models from the Perspective of Evolution of the EU Common Agricultural Policy

Purpose: This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the current quantitative impact assessment methodologies, examining their strengths and weaknesses in terms of data requirements, as well as their consideration of social, economic, and environmental factors. Furthermore, it aims to elucidate the necessity for new-generation agricultural impact assessment models to incorporate advancements in information technology, communication tools, and big data analytics. Design/Methodology/Approach: In this review, the term "agricultural modelling platforms" is used to denote different equilibrium models and these models are divided into two categories according on their methodological approaches. The first category adopts a "systems approach," which includes general and partial equilibrium type models, as well as sector models. The "agent-based approach" is used by the second category. This review, thus, is primarily concerned with contrasting farm-representative models with farm-based models. Findings: The study emphasizes the importance of methodology and criteria in modelling exercises, considering factors like analysis level, environmental impact, and relationship between agriculture and the environment. It suggests that selecting the right modelling scale and tool requires asking the right research questions in advance. Originality/Value: In this study, general and partial equilibrium models, which allow impact analysis of policies implemented in the agricultural sector, which is increasingly faced with ecological and social problems, and Agent Based Models (ABM), which allow the problems in question to be included in the models, are compared and provided guidance to policy makers. It is aimed to reveal their advantages/disadvantages against each other. The originality of this study is that this comparison is made by taking into account the evolution of the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) since its establishment.