Reform UK could impact next election outcome

Significance As Reform is polling nationally at 13% and has performed strongly in recent by-elections, the defection is a blow to the Conservatives' chances of retaining voters in former Brexit-supporting constituencies and threatens to erode further their support at the next general election. Impacts The next election will likely take place in the second half of the year, probably between September and early November. The redrawing of constituency boundaries for the next election will make Labour’s path to a majority more difficult. Should Labour form the next government, its popular support could decline quickly given its limited capacity for public spending.