Prediction of pathologic complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation in locally advanced rectal cancer

Purpose To investigate the predictive factors of pathologic complete response (pCR) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients who had been treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation (nCRT). Methods and materials For this retrospective study, 53 LARC patients (37 males and 16 females; age range 25 to 79 years) were selected. Clinical characteristics, baseline mrTNM staging, MR gross tumor volumes (GTV), and pCR were evaluated. The diagnostic accuracy of GTV for predicting pCR was calculated. Results Among 53 LARC patients, 15 patients achieved pCR (28.3%), while 38 patients achieved non-pCR. Only three (5.7%) out of 53 patients did not downstage after nCRT. GTV and tumor differentiation were the significant prognostic parameters for predicting pCR. A tumor volume threshold of 21.1 cm 3 was determined as a predictor for pCR, with a sensitivity of 84% and specificity of 47%. In addition, GTV was associated with mrN stage, circumferential resection margin (CRM) status, extramural vascular invasion (EMVI) status, and pretreatment serum CEA level. Conclusion Tumor volume and tumor differentiation have significant predictive values in preoperative assessment of pCR among LARC patients. These findings aid clinicians to discriminate those patients who may likely benefit from preoperative regimens and to make optimal treatment plans.