Modelling assessment of resource competition for renewable basic chemicals and the effect of recycling

Abstract This work assesses pathways towards a net‐zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions chemical industry sector in Germany until 2050, focusing on the ammonia, methanol, ethylene and adipic acid subsectors and the effect of the recycling of C embedded in chemical end products on the GHG abatement cost and primary resource demand. This was done using a bottom‐up mathematical optimization model, including the energy sectors and the chemicals sector, with electricity and biobased options considered. Results show that net‐zero GHG emissions for the considered chemicals in 2050 are attainable at a marginal cost of 640–900 €/tCO 2 ‐eq, even with 26%–36% of demand being satisfied by fossil production routes. This is possible because renewable organic chemicals can act as carbon sinks if, at their end of life, C is permanently stored via landfilling or passed on to the next value chain via recycling. Nonetheless, considering the cost implications, the practical deployment of renewable chemicals is a challenge. The considered renewable chemicals cost 1.3–8 times more than their fossil counterparts, resulting in a marginal CO 2 price of 480 €/tCO 2 ‐eq when all primary resources (energy crops, forest residues and renewable electricity) are considered, or 810 €/tCO 2 ‐eq when the availability of arable land is restricted. In the transition to net‐zero emissions for the chemicals under study, a circular economy is important not only for reducing demand for primary resources as is typically the case but also reduces GHG abatement costs by 13%–24% through carbon capture and utilization effects.