Algiers will be wary of dynamics in the south

Significance The region has nonetheless seen waves of protests and some inter-communal clashes and terrorism over the past decade and more. Moreover, there are strong grievances in the south over unemployment and the environmental fallout from fracking, meaning that even amid repressive measures, the potential for renewed unrest remains. Impacts The south, given its sparse population, will not play a major role in determining the outcome of the December presidential election. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune is likely to win the election because of the advantages of incumbency and the military’s support. Political and security developments in the Sahel could increase the flow of migrants into Algeria. Government policies such as unemployment allocations will go some way towards appeasing popular discontent. Further fracking and mining projects could meet with renewed opposition and protests.