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Background: This research delves into the pivotal role of agriculture in the Indian economy, emphasizing its influence on industrial growth and employment.Despite declining GDP share, agriculture remains essential for food security and jobs.The study explores the factors contributing to the significant improvement in food grain production, highlighting technological advancements, irrigation, and seed varieties since the Green Revolution. Methods:The study employs decomposition analysis to assess the relative contributions of area, yield, and their interaction with overall lentil crop output.Instability in food grain production is measured using the coefficient of variation, focusing on the period from 1950 to 2020.Additionally, the research employs Markov chain analysis to analyze the trade directions of Indian pulses and assess the stability of food grain exports.Results: Decomposition analysis reveals varying contributions of area, yield, and interaction effects on food grain production during different periods.Correlation coefficients indicate a strong relationship between area and output, while yield significantly influences production.Instability analysis demonstrates fluctuations in the area, production, and yield of food grains over different periods. Conclusion:The study concludes that despite the growth in food grain production, there is a need to address instability issues, particularly in the area and yield components.The research sheds light on the evolving dynamics of India's food grain exports through Markov chain analysis, emphasizing the reliability of certain importing countries and the potential for instability in others.The findings call for sustainable practices to mitigate production risks and enhance the competitiveness of food grain growers.
Verma et al. (Fri,) studied this question.