A Computational Approach for Global Trade Analysis Sensitive to Free Trade Agreement Circumstances: A Case Study Focusing on the Great Mekong Subregion

In the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), GDP and economic statistical indices can be analyzed for forecasting future trends in multiple countries by using the GTAP database and GEMPACK utilities, which realize the numerical calculation based on the concept of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models.Even with such well-prepared tools with the official database, appropriate forecasting is still difficult due to the sensitivity of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) circumstances.FTA scenarios with a uniform tariff reduction can be assumed in general, while an abrupt and unreasonable change may occur in the simulation depending on the network structure of trading countries and the upper and lower bounds of tariffs in the time course.In the present study, we focused on the Great Mekong subregion (GMS) and explored possible methods to calculate substantially.