Cyclones and skinny dolphins: adaptation pathways for Pacific communities under rapid global change

The Pacific region is experiencing accelerating global change with complex interactions amongst multiple drivers, yet the onus for urgent adaptation falls largely on communities. Proponents of adaptation must therefore ensure that communities are empowered and enabled to design and implement their own adaptation plans after project cycles have concluded, and that this capacity is scaled beyond the original focus. To address this challenge, we tested a new approach in the Solomon Islands for the iterative development, implementation and evaluation of community-led adaptation. Our theory of change was that by co-designing a decision-making process with a network of community facilitators, livelihood adaptation planning could be mainstreamed and scaled out across rural communities. We implemented a planning process based on systems thinking, social learning and co-production, which we assessed using a novel participatory monitoring, evaluation and learning framework. The process involved six steps: (1) identifying drivers of change; (2) developing shared visions for livelihoods; (3) scoping possible futures for livelihoods; (4) identifying existing community adaptive capacity; (5) determining priority 'no-regrets' strategies to achieve the community vision and (6) mapping adaptation pathways of implementation decisions. Community facilitators co-designed the process, and then ran it in their communities to develop place-based adaptation pathways suited to the local decision-making context, and scaling the process out to neighbouring villages through peer-to-peer learning. Results from a monitoring, evaluation and learning assessment showed the process had generated shifts in thinking among communities towards anticipatory adaptation and the development and implementation of livelihood adaptation pathways. The process had also empowered people to have ownership, responsibility and agency for their futures without major ongoing support from outside agencies.