October 11, 2025

Relationship Between Academic Motivation and Student Retention in the First Year of University: Evidence From a Logistic Regression Model

Key Points

High intrinsic motivation and sense of belonging significantly enhance student retention in the first year, indicating the need for supportive environments.
Logistic regression analysis showed that intrinsic motivation increased retention odds by 38%, while demotivation decreased them by 28%.
Observational study utilized data from 2,148 first-year students at a public Latin American university, focusing on motivation and retention.
Findings emphasize the importance of addressing psychological needs, indicating that institutional support can foster academic and social integration.

Abstract

Objective. To evaluate the relationship between academic motivation and student retention in the first year using a logistic regression model, controlling for sociodemographic and academic factors. Method. Observational study with administrative and survey data of first-year students (N=2,148) in a Latin American public university; motivation variables measured with an abbreviated version of the Academic Motivation Scale (AMS) and sense of belonging; outcome: retention in the second semester. Results. High intrinsic motivation (OR=1.38; 95% CI: 1.18–1.61) and the identified regulation (OR=1.21; 95%CI: 1.05–1.39) increased the probability of retention, while demotivation reduced it (OR=0.72; 95% CI: 0.61–0.84). The sense of belonging showed a positive effect (OR=1.29; 95% CI: 1.12–1.48). The model had AUC=0.74 and Nagelkerke's R²=0.21. Conclusion. Motivation (especially intrinsic/autonomous) and sense of belonging are significantly associated with retention in the first year; institutional strategies should support the satisfaction of basic psychological needs (autonomy, competence and relationship) and strengthen academic and social integration. These findings are consistent with Self-Determination Theory and contemporary frameworks on retention. (Ryan Kritikou Frontiers in Education, 2023; MDPI, 2024).

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