Impact Analysis of Tariffs on Chinese Agricultural Futures Prices in the Context of Economic Globalization

This paper aims to explore the impact of tariff policy adjustments triggered by Sino-US trade friction on changes in Chinese agricultural futures prices in the context of economic globalization. It focuses on the correlation between tariff intensity and agricultural futures prices, as well as the systemic impact mechanism of tariff prices on agricultural futures prices, in order to fill the academic gap in empirical research and theoretical explanation in this field. This study employs quantitative analysis methods, using futures trading data from the Dalian Commodity Exchange as the primary sample for empirical testing. The results indicate a significant positive correlation between tariff intensity and agricultural futures prices, and further reveal the systemic mechanisms through which tariff policies influence futures prices via channels such as market expectations and supply costs. This study can provide theoretical reference for policymakers and market participants, and has certain implications for the stable development of China's agricultural futures market.