Modeling of hydrodynamic processes in the mouth of rivers of the European territory of Russia under possible climate changes

Possible scenarios for the impact of climate change on hydrodynamic processes in the mouths of the Northern Dvina, Onega and Pechora Rivers are considered. For this purpose, we used hydrodynamic models of estuary areas previously developed by the authors in the STREAM 2D, HEC-RAS and Delft3D software packages. Projected sea level rise values, obtained from data of the global climate models GFDL-ESM2M, IPSL-CM5A-LR, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, were used to established the lower boundary condition of hydrodynamic models. As the upper boundary conditions of hydrodynamic models, runoff change estimations performed using the ECOMAG runoff formation model were taken into account. Based on ensemble simulations, two main tendencies in changes in the factors of hydrodynamics of estuarine areas were identified and analyzed - sea level rise and river flow reduction. Scenarios of spring flood and summer-autumn low water periods were modeled, corresponding to different combinations of boundary conditions for the historical period, as well as for the most probable and most unfavorable hydrometeorological conditions of the mid-21st century. An analysis of possible changes in the hydrodynamic characteristics of the water flow and their impact on various aspects of hydro-ecological safety and use of water resources in the estuarine areas of the rivers under study is presented.