What question did this study set out to answer?

This research aims to forecast mortality trends for multiple myeloma in the US using demographic data from 1999 to 2023.

December 8, 2025Open Access

Long-term projections of multiple myeloma mortality in the United States(2024-2040).: A time-series analysis stratified by sex, race, and geography

Key Points

This research aims to forecast mortality trends for multiple myeloma in the US using demographic data from 1999 to 2023.
Data on age adjusted mortality rates were retrieved from CDC WONDER using ICD 10 code C90.0.
An ARIMA model was used to forecast trends up to 2040.
Subgroup analyses were conducted based on sex, race, and geography.
Mortality rates for multiple myeloma are projected to decline from 4.07 in 2024 to 2.93 by 2040 (28.0% reduction).
Gender disparities decreased significantly, with males' mortality rates dropping by 68.6% and females' by 30.8%.
Racial disparities also narrowed, with Black mortality rates declining by 27.2% vs. 25.6% for White populations.
Geographic disparities persisted, with metro areas showing a decline of 20.8% compared to 18.5% in non-metro areas.

Abstract

Abstract Background:Multiple Myeloma remains as a hematologic malignancy with significant mortality burden and persistent demographic disparities in outcomes. Robust forecasting of mortality trends is crucial for proper resource allocation. This study utilizes comprehensive national data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research(CDC WONDER) to forecast Multiple Myeloma mortality through 2040. Methods: Age adjusted mortality rates(AAMR) for Multiple Myeloma between 1999 to 2023 were retrieved from CDC WONDER using ICD 10 code C90.0.An ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model,using Python 3,was utilized to forecast trends of the subsequent 17 years. Sub group analysis was done for sex, race(White/Black) and geography(metropolitan/non-metropolitan). Results:Our ARIMA modeling forecasts a continued decline in Multiple Myeloma AAMR from 4.07 in 2024 to 2.93 by 2040 (28.0% reduction). Gender disparities narrowed substantially, with males experiencing a more rapid decline (4.87 to 1.53; -68.6%) compared to females (3.31 to 2.29; -30.8%), reducing the gender gap from 1.56 to 0.76 points.Similar results were seen in Racial disparities, with Black population AAMR declining from 7.99 to 5.82 (-27.2%) and White populations AAMR decreasing from 3.83 to 2.85 (-25.6%), narrowing the racial gap (4.16 in 2024 to 2.97 points in 2040).Geographic analysis revealed persistent disparities, as metro areas declined from 4.24 to 3.36 (-20.8%) while non-metro areas showed slower reduction (4.43 to 3.61; -18.5%), slightly widening the gap from 0.19 to 0.25 points by 2037. Conclusion:Multiple Myeloma mortality rates are projected to decline through 2040, with substantial narrowing of gender and racial disparities. However, persistent geographic inequalities underscore the need for targeted interventions for such high risk groups.

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Cite This Study

Ahmad et al. (Mon,) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69362f714fa91c937236e1d9 https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1182/blood-2025-7516

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